How Transatlantic Relations Began to Fracture:
Russia’s Imperial Aggression, Trump’s Response, and the Future of Europe

 

by VH@kraw.al
2025 September 1
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Key findings:

 

·      Trump's volatility and lack of trustworthiness negatively impact relationships and alliances.

·      Europe must still try to cooperate with him until its strategic independence is achieved;

·      Putin, drawing upon his KGB training, is able to influence Trump's views;[1]

·      The same is true for Netanyahu: "whenever Trump and Bibi meet, Trump enters the room with his own views, and then comes out with Bibi's policy;"[2]

·      Just as he failed to exert the US's vast influence to pressure Israel not to commit genocide (B-52 aid against Iran), Trump also stopped short of using the full available sanctions repertoire[3] against Russia by allowing his own deadline to expire;[4]

·      Trump wants to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize[5] in order to achieve a positive historic legacy, attention and be admired;[6]

·      The longer the conflict in Ukraine continues, the more likely it is that Trump will lose patience and, out of frustration, either reduce support for European security or shift his attention elsewhere — or possibly even increase sanctions on Russia;[7]

·      By negotiating with Russia, without first insisting on an immediate cease-fire, Trump gave the upper hand to Russia, and enabled it to continue dragging out the negotiations, while it improves its battlefield position daily by taking more land;[8]

·      Putin's refusal to accept an immediate cease-fire can be interpreted as a lack of honest intent to negotiate as well as an unwillingness to make compromises in order to stop the war at this stage;

·      Long-term perspective: Even if security guarantees were to be agreed upon, it is uncertain that Trump would actually deploy US troops to Europe if Putin attacked Ukraine or any of the NATO alliance's Baltic countries (per Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty);

·      As a first step NATO cohesion might be put to the test if Putin resorted to covert use of disguised forces in Eastern Flank countries, [9] as in 2014, when Russia illegally annexed Crimea[10], since Putin's long-standing goal is to weaken NATO and expand Russia's orbit of influence;[11]

"Just say thank you"

 

What were their thoughts when US President Donald J. Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance woke up on February 28^th, 2025, in anticipation of publicly meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at 11:20am?

Did one of them suddenly come up with a plan on how to coerce Zelensky into submission?[12]

Or was it merely their arrogance and emotional incompetence that incidentally got exposed later this day? What did they want to demonstrate to the US or global public?

 

Meanwhile, for Zelensky, it was expected to be one of the most challenging and important trips to the US to date, given Ukraine’s reliance on US arms and intelligence support.

Against the backdrop of Trump’s stated Russian-interest-aligned falsehoods about Zelensky and Ukraine and the ensuing public exchanges of mutual criticism,[13] Zelensky had now flown to the US in order to mend relations and secure US support for Ukraine.

 

During the first half-hour of their live-streamed Oval-Office meeting it seemed as if Trump and Zelensky at least were trying to get along well with each other, in spite of the fact that, as time passed, their differences became ever more evident. For example, when Trump falsely claimed,[14] that Europe had financially supported Ukraine with arms transfers far less than the US had and that, in addition, they would be reimbursed, Zelensky dared to openly contradict him. But notwithstanding this potentially explosive confrontation, in the end, they both decided to try to conceal their disagreements lightheartedly by starting to laugh awkwardly.

 

Such moments expose the hierarchical military-economic power structures that Trump seeks to exploit, while Zelensky during this instance has refused to remain silent, when Trump arrogantly posited falsehoods.

Then suddenly the confrontation escalated, as Vance entered the conversation, displaying a certain air of arrogance and a severe lack of self-constraint. He even lectured and belittled Zelensky, the US's supposed strategic ally.

After Vance's initial remarks, that peace must be achieved not through strength, but by conducting diplomacy with Putin, Zelensky strongly questioned such an approach.

Zelensky cited Putin’s history of repeatedly breaking his diplomatic promises and signed treaties[15] which goes back even to the time before he illegally annexed Crimea in 2014.[16]

Confronted with these irrefutable facts contradicting his and Trump’s previous statements, Vance abruptly shifted his tone and castigated Zelensky as being ungrateful for previous US support:

 

"Have you said 'thank you' once?"

 

After Trump jumped onto it and repeats Vance's points, the discussion could well have ended.

But Vance chose to add fuel to the fire, by repeating his accusation of ingratitude once again, seemingly either unaware or even reckless of what lasting consequences of doing so would be to US-Ukraine relations.

After Trump tried to lecture Zelensky about what he must do and sign, Vance reprimanded Zelensky:

 

 "Just say thank you!",

 

and then impertinently shifted the blame on Zelensky for the stunningly undiplomatic escalation of their discourse:

 

"let's go litigate those disagreements rather than trying to fight it out in the American media when you're wrong! We know that you're wrong!"

 

Note Vance’s repeated allegation of "wrongness", which bluntly illustrates the humiliating nature of the meeting, which was marked by a barrage of interruptions, and hostile remarks towards Zelensky.

As Vance and Trump tried to publicly force Zelensky into submissively accepting any of their demands, since the survival of Ukraine's crucially depends on the US providing it with armaments.

A former colleague of Vance at the Marines' public affairs section, commented on the latter's performance during the meeting as follows:

 

“Now he gets to be a smart ass and seemingly there’s no consequences for it.”[17]

 

 

Illusions along the Atlantic - Will Europe still be able to count on the US?

 

While aspiring to present themselves as peace-makers and conservers of US-American tax dollars, it seems as if Trump and Vance don’t care much about the fate of Ukraine and Europe. Vance's previous military service in Iraq[18] seems to have led him to the over-simplified conviction: that any foreign-policy providing military support abroad ought to be rejected[19] in favor of an isolationism or a US policy alignment with reactionary and authoritarian regimes like Russia, Belarus and North Korea.[20]  His public statements regarding US foreign interventions disregard the complex policy nuances of manifold global crises that, to varying degrees, differ from the Iraqi conflict.

Trump’s behavior, as well, has demonstrated a lack of understanding of the consequences of his own actions — and even more so, of the international and territorial ambitions of a hegemony-seeking Putin, who, to this end, interfered to Trump’s benefit during the 2016 US elections.[21]

 

As John Brennan, who served as CIA-director during the Obama administration, remarked after the public Oval Office quarrel between Vance, Zelensky and Trump," It is furthermore clear that either Trump and Vance are ignorant of world history or intentionally ignoring it." On several occasions, he claims, "What you heard from Trump and Vance was advancing the Russian position."[22]

 

European allies of the US should also be alarmed by the facts, that Trump "doesn't read any briefing papers or anything like that.",[23] and that Vance has endorsed (and even provided blurbs for) books written by far-right conspiracy theorists Jack Posobiec and Kevin Roberts.[24]

Taken altogether, several key figures of the second Trump administration — including president Trump himself as well as vice-president Vance — are to some extent "living in a disinformation space"[25] created by Russia. Trump for his part seems to get his information

 

"from all kinds of random people. Often he hears things he doesn't hear from his senior advisers, and thinks he has better information sources than they have."[26]

 

Not only at the February 2025 meeting with Zelensky has Trump bristled at giving Ukraine any serious security guarantees. Furthermore, he claims that the proposed minerals deal benefitting US companies and therefore US-interests, would be enough to deter Russian aggression in the future.

 

This raises the question of why Trump does not offer making the US the military backstop for security guarantees in order to placate Ukrainians and Europeans? If it is true, as he claims, that the mere presence of US economic interests in Ukraine — supported by his self-avowed uniquely personal relationship with Putin — are enough to deter further Russian aggression, then there should be no risk in his providing unshakable security guarantees, as well.[27]

 

One can only hope that the motives for Trump’s absurd reasoning are predominantly influenced by his isolationist MAGA base of voters: By withholding US military support, he is scoring political points with these supporters, who are largely averse to seeing any further tax dollars spent — let alone US “boots” sent — to war overseas.

 

Therefore, until its strategic autonomy is achieved, Europe must strive to achieve a delicate balance in its relations with the US. Its representatives must bear in mind, that Trump is likely to sell out his allies at any point if the thinks that it suits his personal goals.
This can be inferred from the fact that he has clearly demonstrated a lack of moral values regarding democracy and rule of law, as well as from the nature of his character being described as "totally transactional".[28]

 

"He thinks everything in life is just another deal to be made, he doesn't have a grand strategy, doesn't have a philosophy he doesn't really even do policy, they [Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim-Jong-Un] are considering how they're going to take advantage of Trump."[29]

 

His transactional character is revealed not only by the trade tariffs he has imposed on the EU, but also in the way he has dealt with Ukraine’s and Europe's future security. It is also evident in his extortionary demand that Ukraine cede its mineral resources in exchange for US support. Furthermore, he has substantially weakened NATO by stating that the US enjoys having an "ocean separating us,"[30] while simultaneously bullying NATO members that unless they pay more for NATO’s common defense, he would "encourage" Russia "to do whatever the hell they want."[31]

 

The Trump administration’s unreliability as an ally poses a significant problem for Ukraine and Europe as a whole.

As European leaders must figure out how to best cope with this, Trump’s unpredictability regarding foreign policy matters stands in contrast to his predictability as far as his overly narcissistic and attention-loving bully character is concerned.

 

"He doesn't really care about enhancing American

Security, [he] cares about enhancing Donald Trump."[32]

 

"Obviously all politicians worry about optics. There's no question about that. But Trump thinks of himself as a TV performer, and he is a TV performer in a sense. If his whole day were on television, he'd probably enjoy that."[33]

 

 

The self-sabotage of the US

 

White House insiders have reported that Trump neither understands international politics nor is willing to acquire further knowledge:

 

"He has no interest in learning. And

he doesn't read any briefing papers or

anything like that."[34]

 

Which is wholly unbefitting of a leader of the world’s strongest nuclear power.
Rather than fulfilment of the MAGA promise of salvation, we are instead witnessing the US’ decline both internally as well as internationally.[35]

For when he alienates and undermines his European and other crucial allies'[36] interests, in the long run, he will lose the US’ closest democratic and economic allies on whom the US is also co-dependent. When publicly lecturing and humiliating Zelensky or other European leaders the Trump administration therefore shooting the US public in the foot and is destroying its future.

And as time passes the effects of these self-inflicted wounds will be more and more painful. Trump, in this regard, has demonstrated his inability to appreciate the consequences of his decisions, declaring that he is more interested in “watching a soccer match” than in being briefed by experts on foreign policy matters.[37]

 

Will Europe fall down with the US?

 

Eight Months into his second term as President, Trump continues to echo Russian Propaganda,[38] for example, when calling in to the “Fox and Friends” TV show, he claims that that the reason for Russia's invasion of Ukraine was its fear of having yet another NATO country on its border.

 

Yet neighboring NATO countries have never posed an immediate, credible military threat that should be accepted as an excuse for Russia’s illegal war of aggression and its associated war crimes. For decades, Russia has been neighboring NATO Baltic countries, which have never shown any military hostility, nor is any of them big enough to pose a serious threat. On the contrary, Russia's new imperialism stems from Putin’s expansionist, imperial goal of reestablishing the former Soviet Union's sphere of influence.[39]

 

It is generally assumed that Putin is more likely to invade other countries, as well, if he thinks it would be easy,[40] just as he assumed (correctly) when he annexed Crimea in 2014 and (incorrectly) launched Russia’s war of aggression into Ukraine in 2022.

Notwithstanding this, Donald Trump has revealed his Russia-tolerant tendencies when he stated:

 

"They [Ukraine] asked with the United States, they said, put us into NATO. And everybody knew you could, you just can't do that. They [Russia] would never have agreed to it. This is before Putin. This is long before Putin. This was a.... it was just a no-no. It was something that was never going to happen. So they asked for it and they shouldn't have asked for it because it was, you know, very insulting. Now, they could have asked for many other things. But the other thing they wanted to do is is getting Crimea back. And, you know, that was given."[41]

 

"I mean, if you were Russia, who would want to have your enemy, your opponent sitting on your line? You don't do that. So it was always thought that Ukraine was sort of a buffer between Russia and the rest of Europe. And it was a big, wide buffer. Everything worked out well until [President] Biden got involved." [42]

 

The 47th president of the United States, Donald Trump is therefore openly accepting Russia's claim to have Ukraine in its imperial sphere of influence, and giving a green light to Putin to continue his pursuit by the means of terrorizing civilians with indiscriminate bombardments.[43] In the years to come, if Putin asserts his imperialist claims to Eastern Europe more violently, would Donald Trump continue to side with him?

 

"He would ask questions, but, mostly, he likes to talk. There were some of the intelligence briefings where he talked more than the intelligence briefer. And, I was reminded [that] Lyndon Johnson once said 'I found that when I'm talking, I don't learn very much' but that was not an inhibition for Trump."[44]

 

Will Europe attain strategic independence soon enough in order to counter the renewed Russian Imperialism that appears determined to fill the power vacuum left by the US?

Even if Europe succeeds in attaining a position of equal strength, it is imperative that it also eventually negotiates global mutual disarmament, which will also help combat climate change

If we succeed in attaining a position of equal strength, it is nevertheless imperative that we negotiate worldwide mutual disarmament at last, which will also help combat climate change. The worldwide folly of grandpas with nukes, at the expense of life on earth for the future generations, must be stopped.